“This is merely an inter-clan struggle of predator spiders”

Interview with the president of union of political scientists of Armenia Hmayak Hovhannisyan.

– In your opinion, why do the PAP representatives avoid to speak about the format of their participation in the upcoming presidential race, the name of the candidate and the theme of presidential elections in general?

– Their behavior of avoiding these questions is quite understandable. Last February the PAP leader signed a coalition memorandum, which puts a concrete obligation on him. The PAP hasn’t made any statement about refusing these obligations and nominating its own candidate during the presidential elections. On the other hand, as a result of parliamentary elections the NA majority didn’t change and the RPA maintained its monopoly. Although the PAP deflected from the coalition but by doing so it only failed the possibility of post-electoral developments. I assume that the PAP continues its cooperation with the RPA, of course informally. The most vibrant example of that, are the elections of mayor in Gyumri and the victory of a PAP member Samvel Balasanyan in those elections.

– How plausible do you think is the intention of the opposition would be to run with a single candidate?

– I should mention that I don’t see any prerequisite for the nomination of a joint candidate. They might be cooperating though. PAP only partially cooperates with the opposition. And the reason of that is their adopted policy of maneuvering between the government and opposition. They are trying to take benefits from their current status.

– What is the benefit of the PAP in the cooperation with the ANC?

– By maneuvering between the two fields the PAP is trying safeguard its ballots received from the electorate of both camps, which I think is a challenging matter. In this regard, I think it is vital for the PAP to maintain the votes received from the opposition constituencies. By cooperating with the opposition the PAP is trying to use this tool to pressure on the government when need be. I would also like to advert to the fact that the PAP so far hasn’t declared whether it will run the presidential elections with its own candidate or it will endorse the incumbent president. The big goal of the PAP is to have the post of the Prime Minister. The party doesn’t even hide this.

– Does this mean if the RPA gives up the post of the Prime Minister the PAP will return to the coalition?

– The resources of the country are getting scarce and the economic recession deepens. So the key question is who will be leading the post of the Prime Minister under these circumstances. As there is no actual growth the parties are thinking about snatching each other’s beneficial positions. As you understand this political struggle has got nothing to do with the issues of average citizens and the necessity of resolving them.

– A member of Heritage party Styopa Safaryan stated that the analysis of the recent developments allows us to predict a solicited war between the RPA and PAP. Based on your statements, can we assume that the war is waged in order to share the post of the Prime Minister?

– As a whole, the tension is linked to the reduction of two resources. And it’s clear that there is the need of decentralization of political and economic powers and levers. In this background they can’t help the inter-party tension. But this tension even more alienates the political parties from the connection with their constituencies and the problems of the society they need to tackle. This is merely an inter-clan struggle of predator spiders. If the post of the chair of government passes to the PAP in this case indeed the economic positions of the PAP will strengthen. If the RAP maintains its positions then no actual reforms will take place.

– In your opinion, who does the PAP envision in the post of the Premier? Recently the name of Robert Kocharyan has been circulating. Do you find it plausible for Kocharyan to become a PAP Premier?

– At some occasion I have mentioned that the PAP leader succeeds to maneuver between all three presidents of Armenia. This gives us grounds to assume that Tsarukyan might have certain expectations from all three of them by trying to keep a “balance” among all of them. If Hovik Abrahamyan can become the NA Speaker why can’t Tsarukyan be the Prime Minister? In the case of our government everything is possible. As of Robert Kocharyan’s appointment to the post of the Prime Minister, I am a little skeptical to this assumption whereas I don’t think Serzh Sargsyan will let this happen.

– By the way, the ANC coordinator Levon Zurabyan stated that Levon Ter-Petrosyan is examining the possibilities of running for presidential elections 2013. Do you find it possible that all the three presidents of Armenia might be running the next race? 

– I don’t exclude this because this is quite possible. I have always said that there is 70% chance that we might have this picture. Of course, this will pass a certain intrigue to the race. As of Kocharyan and Ter-Petrosyan then in a certain sense they have the same fates because they realize that this race will be their last chance of coming to power. These elections will be held between the present and past. The past is represented by the first and second presidents and the present is represented by the incumbent. These are going to be the last elections of their kind because in 2018 the elections will be between the present and future. I think that the favorite of these elections just like in previous elections will be the incumbent president.

– There are rumors that you are looking for way to meet with president Serzh Sargsyan.

– Your question reminded me of a story that was told by Emma Khudabashyan, who was a member of the political board of the PPA during Karen Demirchyan’s tenure. She tells me that when Demirchyan was the NA chairman the old representatives of the former communist party would persuade Khudabashyan to go to Demirchyan and tell that I was meeting with Serzh Sargsyan, Robert Kocharyan. Demirchyan reprimanded the old communist members and said that he welcomed my intention to meet with all the prominent political figures. “The political scientist should meet with everyone to find out what’s going on around me,” said Demirchyan. Only a true leader would think that way without giving in to political gossips and babbles. As of political morons, then they start to believe in such gossips and chats. I as the president of the union of political scientists have to meet with the president of the country once a month.

– Do you do so though?

– The problem is that I don’t. The president should receive a deep and objective analysis that today only the UPS can provide. Unfortunately our government is not adequate in this regard either.